Is Britain About to Exit Brexit?

A year ago, I took a non alarmist view on the European Union Referendum Act 2015, popularly known as “Brexit.”  I wrote a piece entitled “Brexit Will Lead to Greater Unity, Not Disintegration” for the American Bar Association Section of International Law’s European Committee Newsletter, Brexit Special Edition – Voices From the Divide.  I asserted that, because the Brexit vote was advisory, cooler heads would prevail, and the British Parliament would ultimately decline to leave the European Union.  

Here on ContractsProf Blog as well, I outlined an approach for an exit from brexit based on Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.  Following the Fixed Terms Parliament Act 2001, Parliament could elect to hold a snap election with Brexit as the flashpoint.  One year later, the UK Government appears poised for this very result.

In April, Prime Minister Theresa May called for the dissolution of Parliament, and a snap election to be held on June 8th.  Her stated intent was to increase the Conservative Party majority in Parliament.  Thus, making it easier to pass legislation to execute Britain’s departure from the EU.  It would also strengthen her hand in negotiations with the other European powers.  

However, a funny thing happened on the way to Tory hegemony.  The Labour Party has been gaining in the polls.  In contrast to May’s determination for a clean break from Europe, Labour are promising a more measured approach (a summary of the positions of the political parties can be found here).  While stating that it will honor the results of the referendum, Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party first promise to allow European citizens living in the UK to remain.  Labour also promises “a strong emphasis on retaining the benefits of the Single Market and the Customs Union – which are essential for maintaining industries, jobs and businesses in Britain.”  See Labour Party Manifesto.  

With such a stark contrast between the parties, the UK public will have a de facto second referendum on Brexit in the form of a Parliamentary election.